Spelts Wealth Management & Benson Wealth Management

Monday Morning Outlook

Market Outlook: Profits Poised for Growth COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, the latter of which was the steepest drop in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression in the 1930s. But for the third quarter, the US is tracing out a V-shaped bounce and likely grew somewhere between 30 - 35% at an annual rate, the fastest increase in ...Continue reading

The Long Slog Recovery The second quarter of 2020 was the mother of all economic contractions. Real GDP shrank at a 31.7% annual rate, the largest drop for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, based on the economic reports we've seen so far, it looks like the third quarter will be the mother of all economic rebounds. Even if industrial production and retail sales are flat unchanged in September, they will still be up at 37.6% and 60.1% annual rates, respect...Continue reading

Positive Policies to Cut the Debt Burden When government forces businesses to close (even if it is for a pandemic), it’s a taking in the legal sense. And we can think about $3 trillion in extra federal spending as just...Continue reading

Housing Revival The US economy got crushed in the second quarter, with the worst decline in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, the long road to recovery has started and, for now, we’re penciling in real GDP growth at a 20% annual...Continue reading

Monday Morning Outlook ________________________________________ Don't Play GDP Politics These days, pretty much everything is hyper-political, including death rates from disease, wearing masks, opening schools, whether some demonstrations are "mostly peaceful" or "violent," and now GDP....Continue reading

Monday Morning Outlook ________________________________________ Date: 7/27/2020 ...Continue reading

Monday Morning Outlook ________________________________________ Date: 7/6/2020 ...Continue reading

Market Update- Not Locking Down A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated lockdowns. We don’t expect that to happen, but when the government is involved, risks are definitely higher. ...Continue reading

Monday Morning Market Update- Date: 6/22/2020 Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions....Continue reading

How Are We Going To Pay For All This? The largest federal budget deficit since World War II came back in 2009, as slower growth and increased government spending during the subprime-mortgage financial panic pushed the deficit to 9.8% of GDP. This year’s the budget deficit will, quite simply, blow that record out of the water. The Congressional Budget Office recently totaled up all the legislative measures taken so far - as well as the effects of a weaker economy (payments...Continue reading

Light at the End of the Tunnel

GDP: Bad, And Getting Worse Before the Coronavirus, the US economy was cruising for what looked like 3% annualized growth in real GDP in the first quarter. But the effects of both natural social distancing and government-mandated lockdowns crushed economic growth in March. As a result, we now think real GDP contracted at a 3.7% annual rate in Q1, led by a massive drop in inventories as well as declines in consumer spending, business investment in equipment, and commercial co...Continue reading

A Coronavirus Recession?