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Big Bunny: At 4 feet 3 inches in length and weighing in at 49 lbs, Darius, a Flemish Giant Rabbit, has held the Guinness World Record’s largest rabbit title since April 6, 2010. Unfortunately, this leporine recently vanished from its large enclosure in Stoulton, Worcestershire. The authorities strongly suspect bunnynapping, and the thieves are on the lam. There’s a reward of 1,000 for the return of the big fellow. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Catsup Crunch: The price of ketchup packets has risen 13% since 1/20, as their market share has exploded at the expense of tabletop bottles. Catsup is the most consumed table sauce in the US with about 300,000 tons sold to food service in 2020; more is eaten at home. With higher prices, ketchup sales for the first time exceeded $1 billion in 2020, up from $870 million in 2019. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Dynamite Data: The economy continues to roar back to life. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index rose to a record high of 63.7 in March, and in the process blew away the previous high of 60.9 of 10/18. This is great news as the recovery in services has, for obvious reasons, lagged well behind the manufacturing renaissance, and that index hit 64.7 in March, its best reading in nearly 40 years! Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Employment Effects: Unsurprisingly, researchers find that raising unemployment benefits by $600/week last spring reduced job applications. But despite the higher wages that workers might have demanded, and the reduced job search conducted, job vacancies did not rise! This suggests the generous unemployment benefits had no employment effects. Rather, bigger benefits reduced search by the non-serious unemployed, but not among the ranks of job-hunters serious about landing one of the few jobs available. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Airline Analysis: While you might think airlines make money flying people around, it’s their frequent flier programs and the co-branded credit cards airlines issue, this where airlines clean up. Yes, customers earn miles, but data shows that fliers overpay for the free trips. In essence, airlines help banks attract customers for a high fee. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Strong Savings: After peaking in the early 1970s at 13%, the US personal savings rate steadily declined and bottomed at about 3% in the run up to the housing bust. Subsequently, rates quickly rose to 7% and remained there through early 2020. That rise in savings necessarily depressed GDP growth and interest rates over the last decade. Will we see another rise in the savings rate following Sars-CoV-2? It wouldn’t be surprising. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Driving Data: In 2020, motor-vehicle crashes killed 42,060 people, up (yes, up) 8% from 2019. Moreover, vehicle miles driven dropped 13% last year. This means that the rate of road deaths per million miles driven rose 24%, to 1.49, the biggest annual increase since data collection began in 1924. Experts opine that riskier driving on emptier roads is the reason. It was hoped that reduced driving would lead to fewer fatalities. Buckle-up! Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Sports Stadiums: Recently completed SoFi stadium in LA, at $5.5 billion, is the most expensive stadium ever built. Next most costly, Metlife Stadium (where the NFL’s Jets and Giants play lifelessly) at $2.03 billion. Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium follows at just $1.9 billion. Of the 30 most costly arenas ever built, 21 are in the US and in inflation-adjusted dollars cost a combined $29.7 billion, the GDP of Estonia. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Domicile Deficit: Existing inventory of residential homes is currently just 1.04 million units, or 1.9 months of supply, both record lows. It is partly due to insufficient homebuilding over the past decade, Boomers aging in place, Covid-19 preventing sellers from listing, huge demand by buyers to escape dense cities and decamp to suburbia and more space, low interest rates, forbearance plans, and the seven million single-family homes that have become rentals. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Increasing Inflation: The combination of the $900 billion support package signed by President Trump in December, the virtual certainty of another $1.9 trillion Democratic aid package, the probability of a large infrastructure/stimulus bill in February, and the Fed’s desire to keep rates artificially low, along with increased household spending due to high savings rates from prolonged pent-up demand, raises inflationary concerns. The Fed may have to work very hard to repress yields. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Minimum Money: Had the current minimum wage of $7.25/hour increased annually by the rate of inflation it would now be $9/hour. Since the minimum wage was adopted in 1938, its inflation-adjusted value peaked in 1968 when it became $1.60/hour, about $12 today. Raising it to $15/hour would lift 900,000 out of poverty, give raises to up to 27 million workers, but 1.4 million would become unemployed and growth would be modestly hurt. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Muted Money: The US savings rate jumped from 13.4% of disposable income in December to 20.5% in January. This means only 20 cents/dollar the government provided in the $600 stimulus checks was spent. This suggest most of the next round of stimi money will probably also be saved, making one question the wisdom of sending out another $1,400/person. But, it also means inflationary pressures are likely to be somewhat lessened. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Moving Matters: In 2020, Idaho enjoyed the highest percentage of net migration, with 70% inbound and 30% outbound, a net of 40%. SC followed at 28%, then OR at 26%, AZ and SD at 24%, and AL, FL, NC, and TN at 20%. AR was 10th at 18%. CA at -18%, CT at -26%, IL at -32%, NY at -34% and NJ at -40% struggled most. Americans continue moving south and west. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Working Well: The labor market may, emphasis on may, be turning a corner! After deteriorating noticeably in December and early January, the number of workers filing for first-time unemployment claims, a proxy for layoffs, eased for the third straight week to a still staggeringly high 779,000, their best level since November but four times their pre-pandemic rate. Moreover, January net job growth was 49,000, following a decline of 227,000 in December. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Flying Funds: Airplanes are not only expensive to buy, each B-2 costs $2 billion, they are also expensive to operate. The same B-2 costs $63 million/year to operate, the B-52 Stratofortress costs $25 million/year, and the B-1B Lancer, $24 million/year. Fighters are a bit cheaper to maintain. The F-22 Raptor, $22 million/year, the F-35A/B/C, just $13 million/year, and the F-15E Strike Eagle, a mere $12 million/year. Peace is costly. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Ganga Grazing: While marijuana is increasingly considered harmless, there are unintended consequences. Comparing retail scanner data in counties located in CO, OR, and WA where recreational marijuana is legal to counties where it’s not, sales of high calorie foods like ice cream, cookies and chips, is higher by 3.2%, in pot legal counties. On the plus side, booze sales fall and despite the diet deterioration, birth rates rise. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Gaming GameStop: While this may be nothing but a stupid bubble, created by new technology such as Reddit/chat boards and Robinhood and the unintended consequences of low interest rates and massive liquidity due to overreliance on monetary policy, it could be the Wall Street accident we are all afraid of! Bubbles can last years before bursting, think Tech Bubble. The four most expensive words in the English language, this time is different. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Power Problem: If small changes in price lead to large changes in quantity demanded, think pizza, the item is elastic. Some goods, like gasoline, are inelastic. A change in that price does not alter the amount driven. Some things are infinitely inelastic, like electricity on a freezing day. The price per megawatt hour of electricity in Texas rose from $25 to $9,000, and natural gas went from $3/million BTUs to $165/million BTUs! Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Economic Expansion: Despite (finally!) passage of the $900 billion Covid-19 pandemic relief bill into law, 21Q1 GDP will rise by, at best, 2% because said aid has come late and the pandemic remains largely uncontrolled. But the aid will help as time goes on, interest rates remain at rock bottom levels, savings rates remain elevated, and vaccination rates steadily rise. After a slow start, GDP should end 2021 up about 4.5%. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Domicile Duties: The percentage of us that Work From Home will be much higher even after vaccinations and a return to the New Normal. This is because: there’s no longer any stigma, it’s working much better than was expected, IT investments to enable working from home have been made, others are doing it, and older and high-income workers will demand it. I suspect 21% of all work, up from 4%, will be home made. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Additional Assistance: President Trump’s proposal giving $2,000/adult and $600/child, up from $600/person subject to income limits will cost $300 billion extra. The House bill giving $2,000/person subject to identical income limits will cost $465 billion more. In 21Q1, the benefits will be minimal, the economy is at its maximal growth given social distancing. The added money will boost spending somewhat, but not as much as needed. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Weighted Wrapping: All else equal, sloppily wrapped gifts cause recipients to respond more favorably to the gift; the more elegantly wrapped the gift, the higher the recipient expectations. But all’s not equal. When gifts come from acquaintances, recipients are more enthusiastic with neat wrapping. If from a friend, sloppy wrapping makes a better impression. Are you focusing the recipient on the relationship quality (acquaintance) or the gift quality (friend)? Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Congressional Compromise: Congress is finally closing in on a $900 billion coronavirus relief package; not a moment too soon! Retail sales, while up slightly Y-o-Y, fell 1.1% from their October level, their second straight M-o-M decline. And, as of today, first-time claims for unemployment are up two weeks in a row, and four of the last five, yikes! The runoff elections in Georgia are giving citizens a timely voice, and DC’s listening. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Pension Payments: The last Civil War veteran to die was Albert Woolson (1850-1956). The last Civil War bride to die was Maude Hopkins (1914-2008), who at 19 married William Cantrell, age 86. The last person to receive a Civil War pension, $73.13/month, was Irene Triplet, who died this past June at 90. Amazingly, her father fought in the Civil War, which ended in 1865, 155 years ago! Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.