Carriage House Real Estate

The average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan rose from its previous record low by 14 basis points this week to 2.79%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. This marks the first time mortgage rates have risen in almost two months. The 15-year fixed rate also rose slightly this week from 2.16% to 2.23%. Even with this week’s uptick, there have still been 23 consecutive weeks when average mortgage rates have been below 3%.... According to Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, rising treasury yields have been putting pressure on rates to finally move up again. While mortgage rates are expected to increase modestly in 2021, they will remain inarguably low, supporting homebuyer demand and leading to continued refinance activity, Khater said. Borrowers are smart to take advantage of these low rates now and will certainly benefit as a result. With no end in sight to record low mortgage rates and the increased loan volume, lenders must streamline workflows and accelerate time to close. Evolving from traditional closings to hybrid closings to full eClosings can help lenders process more loans at a faster pace without overwhelming their resources. Mortgage applications jumped 16.7% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and refi’s hit a massive 93% year-over-year mark as government loans experienced their strongest week in nearly eight years. The jump underlines the seasonality behind the decrease in mortgage rates the week prior, coupled with expectations of additional fiscal stimulus from the incoming administration, according to MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting Joel Kan. While purchase borrowers have been scrambling for months now to battle it out for the lowest possible rate on the limited inventory available, the Federal Reserve may have given borrowers until the end of 2021 to snap one up. In a speech on Friday, Fed. Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said he expects the central bank to maintain the pace of its bond purchases through 2021. Those purchases are what prevented a credit crunch and made borrowing cheaper back in March. Now, at an average of $120 billion a month split between $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in MBS Fed holdings have surpassed $7 trillion, and Clarida doesn’t see a pullback anytime this year.

California’s housing market continues its upward trend with an uptick in both closed and pending sales last week. In addition, the number of homeowners in forbearance dipped last week. However, the U.S. lost jobs in December for the first time since the recovery began, business confidence dipped slightly, and the public health crisis has presented us with our most challenging days yet.

According to a National Sleep Foundation survey, 62% of people wash their sheets at least once a week. If you’re one of them, pat yourself on the back next time you lie down on your nice, clean bed. And if you’re part of the 38% of Americans who don’t wash their sheets that frequently? Well, maybe it's time to step up your game. We don't think you'll need much convincing, after you read this. That's because we asked a scientist why you should change your sheets every weekand...Continue reading

The U.S. forbearance rate fell seven basis points last week to 5.46% of servicer’s portfolio volume, according to a survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Monday. As of last week’s data set, forbearance portfolio share is now below numbers Black Knight reported in mid-April of 2020. Every investor class managed to see a decline in rate, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac once again claiming the smallest forbearance rate at 3.19%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance, which i...nclude loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, have fluctuated greatly in the past several months and fell seven basis points to 7.85%. Although portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) experienced the greatest decline after a 10 basis point drop, they still held the largest rate at 8.77%. Overall, forbearances are decreasing, but the speed at which they are declining is beginning to slow. Last week marked the eleventh consecutive week servicers portfolios have hovered between 5% and 6% the longest a percentage range has held since the survey’s origins in May. While it arrives as positive news that forbearances are once again descending, economists worry that the length at which borrowers remain in forbearance may become troublesome. The data show that those homeowners who remain in forbearance are more likely to be in distress, with fewer continuing to make any payments and fewer exiting forbearance each month, said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist. Recent data from Urban Institute scholars predicts the now 2.7 million homeowners who remain in forbearance are likely to end up in worse financial shape than the 3.5 million who exited forbearance earlier. Fifty-four percent said they have no or slight confidence that they will be able to resume monthly payments when forbearance ends, the Urban scholars said. According to Fratantoni, those borrowers who do exit are also more likely to require a modification to their ongoing repayment plans. Between June 1, 2020, and Jan. 3, 2021, MBA reported that 29.1% of exits represented borrowers who continued to make their monthly payments in forbearance. During that same time period, those who exited without a loss mitigation plan in place instead inched up to 13.3% from 13.2% the week prior. Fratantoni estimates slowdowns in recent unemployment numbers will prevent any rapid improvement in the forbearance numbers over the next several months. Surging COVID-19 cases caused economic activity to stall in December, with a monthly job loss for the first time since April, and with those jobs mostly concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sector, Fratantoni said.

The COVID-19 pandemicand its associated economic effectshas upended much of the conventional wisdom around determining where, and how, families want to live. The advent of working from home has led to an exodus from gateway markets, as many folks who no longer need to commute seek out larger, cheaper options in the suburbs and exurbs. While not everyone is making the leap, the promise of strong job growth, lower costs of living, and lower-density environments have pushed ...Continue reading

The pandemic is influencing home design in ways that are likely to continue for years to come. For example, garage space is getting more attention, and cleanliness is continuing to remain prominent, according to the America At Home Study, based on nearly 4,000 respondents nationwide and conducted in October and November. Also, garage space is getting more focus as homeowners look to increase the utility of this space, the survey says. Adding space for storage topped the list for garage projects. Younger adults surveyed were more likely to say they made space in their garages for a home gym.

More people are buying vacation homes or second homes this year, as its share of total sales rise to the highest level in four years, according to C.A.R.’s Annual Housing Market Survey. The flexibility to work from home and the desire to move away from metropolitan areas motivated home buyers to flock to resort communities in search of more space and a healthier lifestyle. Resort communities are seeing unprecedented buying activity and price increases, and their markets have been outperforming the rest of California so far this year.

While 2020 was a year of economic uncertainty for many Americans, the average FICO Score still managed to hit a record high of 710, according to Experian’s 2020 Consumer Credit Review. That’s a seven-point increase from 2019 and up a whopping 21 points since 2010. The rise in credit scores can be attributed to Americans spending less money and paying their credit card statements on time. California’s average FICO score rose 8 points in 2020 to reach 716. In addition to credit scores hitting a new high, consumers in all 50 states and Washington D.C. saw a rise in their average credit scores by three to 10 points.

A deep, timeless blue was heralded in 2020, but this year the Carlstadt, N.J.based paint manufacturer Pantone opted for a duo of colors for its 2021 Color of the Year: Pantone 17-5104 Ultimate Gray and Pantone 13-0647 Illuminating. Pantone envisioned that the two colorsone a somber, pebble gray and the another a bright shade of yellowwould reflect the trials and moments of hope that many have experienced over the past months and set the tone for 2021. The selection of two... independent colors highlight how different elements come together to express a message of strength and hopefulness that is both enduring and uplifting, conveying the idea that it’s not about one color or one person, it’s about more than one," said Leatrice Eiseman, executive director of the Pantone Color Institute, in a press release. Practical and rock solid but at the same time warming and optimistic, this is a color combination that gives us resilience and hope. We need to feel encouraged and uplifted, this is essential to the human spirit. [Pantone] See more

2020 has been a year of surprises, including the rise and fall and rise again of the U.S. housing market. Businesses in the home building industry are looking at their successes this year and wondering if they have just pulled demand forward, or if this year's strength will remain through 2021. The Zonda team analyzed the countervailing forces in housing and provides its forecasts below. Forecasting has never been easy, but throw in a pandemic, a rocky presidential election, ...Continue reading

Sacramento, San Jose, Oxnard/Ventura and Riverside/San Bernardino are among the top housing markets in the country that are expected to continue growing this year, according to Realtor.com. Realtor.com said economic momentum from the thriving tech industry, coupled with healthier levels of housing supply, will position these markets for growth in 2021. Home buyers, particularly first-timers, looking in one of these markets should expect rising prices and heavy competition. Meanwhile, sellers will remain in a position of power but will find themselves on the other side of the bargaining table when buying their next home.

The total number of loans in forbearance decreased from 5.54% to 5.48% as of Dec. 6, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased to 3.26% an 8-point improvement. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 21 points to 7.68% Despite a dramatic point improvement, borrowers are still seeking relief, according to Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist.... New forbearance requests reached their highest level since the week ending August 2, and servicer call volume hit its highest level since the week ending April 19, Fratantoni said. Compared to the last two months, more homeowners exiting forbearance are using a modification a sign that they have not been able to fully get back on their feet, even if they are working again. Fratantoni added that this shows an economic slowdown, with an increase in layoffs and long-term unemployment. The country’s unemployment rate did drop to 6.7% in November, however, from 6.9% in October. Coupled with the latest surge in COVID-19 cases, it is not surprising to see more homeowners seeking relief, he said. The forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased by 19 points to 8.89%, while the percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank servicers decreased four points to 5.98% Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume increased from 0.08% to 0.12%. Measured as a percent of servicing portfolio, call center calls rose to 9.4% from 5.3% the prior week, the MBA report said.

With the COVID-19 pandemic forcing people to work remotely, downsize, or employ alternative money-saving techniques, the flexibility of a tiny home has never been more attractive to consumers. A survey of 2,000 consumers by finance company IPX 1031, released in December, found that 56% of Americans say they would live in a tiny home and 86% of first-time homebuyers would consider one for their first home. The price is hard to argue with. A median starter-home in the United S...tates costs $233,400, while their pint-sized cousins can be bought for as low as $30,000, with the high-end models topping out at around $60,000. For some families, the homes are even being bought as second workspaces and clubhouses, according to Scott Nathanson, executive vice president at IPX 1031. Business owners who now work at home full-time are using them as their new office, separate from the main home to stay clear of distractions.

Airbnb shares more than doubled in its public debut on Thursday, per the Wall Street Journal, after opening trading at $146 on the Nasdaq Stock Market higher than its initial-public-offering price of $68 a share. The opening trade valued Airbnb at $101.6 billion, versus its IPO valuation of roughly $47 billion. That makes Airbnb the biggest U.S. IPO in 2020. The company had been widely expected to go public this year, either through an IPO or a direct listing, before the pa...ndemic made that less likely. Like many enterprises in the housing industry, short-term rental companies suffered a shock at the beginning of the pandemic. Airbnb hosts saw $1.5 billion in bookings cancelled in mid-March and while guests got full refunds, hosts still had to pay mortgages on the properties. But demand from people locked down at home helped the company recover much of its bookings over the summer. While revenue was down 32% year-over-year in the first nine months of the year, Airbnb posted a profit in the third quarter. At the beginning of October, the company had more than 7 million active listings of homes and experiences such as guided activities in more than 220 places globally. Founded in 2008, Airbnb officials said in May it had raised $1 billion through a combination of debt and equity from investment firms Silver Lake and Sixth Street Partners. For the slew of mortgage companies looking to go public in the near term, the wild IPO of DoorDash on Wednesday, where shares closed up more than 85%, and today’s very successful Airbnb IPO, could be cause for optimism. Since Rocket Companies became the first of the IMBs to tap the public markets in August, several others have followed suit. Guild Mortgage debuted in October, though market volatility led Caliber Home Loans and AmeriHome Mortgage to delay their IPOs. United Wholesale Mortgage is expected to make its debut via a blank check company in the fourth quarter, at a valuation of $16.1 billion. LoanDepot also announced it was pursuing an IPO, and that was followed by Better.com.

As home prices continue to rise, home buyers are bringing more down payment money to closing. The median down payment on a single-family home and condo purchased in the third quarter increased by nearly 67% compared to a year ago. Median down payments are at the highest level recorded since at least 2000, according to analysis from ATTOM Data Solutions, a real estate data firm. The median down payment of $20,775 was 6.6% of the median sales price for homes purchased with fina...ncing in the third quarter. The median loan amount was $275,500, the highest level since 2000. Five of the top six U.S. metro areas that saw the highest median down payments in the third quarter were in California: 1) San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.: $243,000; 2) Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.: $154,000; 3) Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.: $138,300; 4) Boulder, Colo.: $123,600; 5) Santa Rosa, Calif.: $118,550; 6) San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.: $112,000.

Home prices increased more in Phoenix in the past year than in any other major U.S. metro area, according to data released Tuesday. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed the average Phoenix home price for August at 9.9% higher than it was a year earlier. Nationally, the index showed a 5.2% increase, stronger than economists had expected despite economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The year-over-year increase was 4.1% in July.... The index tracks residential real estate value for 20 major cities each month. The August 2020 report excluded Detroit because of delays in data, but the other 19 cities all saw year-over-year price increases. After Phoenix, Seattle (up 8.5%) and San Diego (7.6%) saw the largest gains.

Unfazed by the recession, wealthy Americans are looking to upsize their homes in the pandemic, according to data from the National Association of REALTORS. As a result, demand for million-dollar homes is climbing faster than homes at any other price point. Sales of homes in the $750,000 to $1 million price range have increased 85.5% over the last year, while sales of homes worth $1 million or more increased 106.5%. On the other hand, sales of homes in the $250,000 to $500,000 price range increased only 36.2%, NAR said.

While the housing market in California begins to exhibit signs of seasonal slowdown, housing demand continues to stay above last year’s level as interest rates remain on a downward trend. How much the state lockdown order will slow the sales momentum is still an unknown, but market participants are more prepared this time around and that should alleviate some of the negative effects the order exert on the market.

Following three months of increases, Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), a composite index designed to track the housing market and consumer confidence to sell or buy a home, fell 1.7 points in November to 80. Year-over-year, the HPSI is down 11.5 points. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan points to consumer wariness around COVID-19 as reason for the sudden decline in housing market confidence. This follows the HPSI’s recovery of slightly mo...re than half of the loss experienced during the first few months of the pandemic, he said. Purchase confidence has recovered more for homeowners than for renters, in part because homeowners have been less likely than renters to have had their jobs and finances impacted by the pandemic. Duncan added that the gap between homeowner and renter subgroups hit a survey-high in August, and remains elevated and well-above the survey average in November.

After two weeks of slight increases, the U.S. forbearance rate, measuring the share of mortgages with suspended payments, remained unchanged from the week prior at 5.54%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The MBA estimates there are still 2.8 million homeowners in some form of mortgage forbearance. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance gained for the first time in 25 weeks on Dec. 1, however, they fell once again last week to 3.34% a 2-basis-point imp...rovement. The GSE’s forbearance rate overall has improved immensely, now down by more than 50% since its peak in late May. Ginnie Mae loans, on the other hand, which include loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, offset last week’s declines by rising 6 basis points to 7.89%. So far, the FHA’s active forbearance volumes have seen just half the GSEs’ level of improvement from their peaks. Portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS), as well as depository servicers also experienced basis point gains to 8.7% and 5.48%, respectively. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank servicers fell 1 basis point from the previous week to 6.02%.

Third-quarter earnings wrapped up for the publicly traded home builders Nov. 10 with D.R. Horton reporting fully diluted earnings per share of $2.24, handily beating analyst consensus expectations of $1.76. This was a common theme for the industry, as the builders posted better-than-expected operating results across a number of metrics, including net new orders, revenues, and profitability.