Bonny Doon Fire Safe Council

The return of son of chipping.

Red Flag Warnings and High Surf Warnings National Weather Service - SF Bay Area/Monterey Issued: 6:00 AM Sunday, December 6, 2020... Key Points - Expected Impacts Red Flag Warning issued 11 pm Sunday through 11 am Monday for much of the Bay Area Wind Advisory issued for much of the Bay Area 11 pm Sunday through 11 am Monday. Beach Hazard Statement for Coast (excluding Northern Monterey Bay) Monday High Surf Warning for Coast (excluding Northern Monterey Bay) Monday night & Tuesday Changes From Previous Briefing Second Issuance Changes include all of the Warnings/Advisories and Statements noted above in the Key Points section Confidence and Details Fire Weather (Winds & Dry Fuels) HIGH Confidence Gusty Northeast winds arrive tonight then peak around sunrise Monday morning. Wind gusts 45-60 mph in the hills with gusts 30-45 mph into lower elevations. MODERATE Confidence Humidity values will stay in the moderate category about 35-50% overnight before drying Monday afternoon to 30% Details: Fire Weather Concerns: Strong offshore winds Sunday night through midday Monday. Winds will be strong enough to bring down trees, branches and cause power outages. Fuels are at or near record dry levels for early December Marine HIGH Confidence Sneaker Waves on Monday Large Breaking Waves Monday night and Tuesday Details: Beach Hazards: Very Long period northwest swell at 21-25 seconds will arrive through the day on Monday Increased risk of infrequent yet dangerous sneaker waves at west and northwest facing beaches. Enhanced rip currents, coastal runup, and coastal erosion. High Surf: Northwest swell builds to 15-18 feet at 17 to 20 seconds Monday Night into Tuesday Large breaking waves of around 25 feet expected at west and northwest facing beaches, locally up to 30 feet at favorable break points. Enhanced rip currents, coastal runup, and coastal erosion. Weather Summary Offshore winds will develop tonight as low pressure drops down Nevada towards Southern California. Gusty northeast winds will develop before midnight across the North and East Bay. Winds will increase overnight and spread across much of the Bay Area by sunrise Monday. The strongest offshore winds are forecast Monday morning with gusts 45 mph for many locations. These winds will bring increased fire weather concerns for any new starts. The windiest locations will be in the hills and along the coastline Monday morning as winds come off the hills and spread down towards Highway 1 and the beaches. Winds ease by Monday afternoon. Long range forecast remains dry next week. For the latest forecast updates, visit www.weather.gov/BayArea For all current watch/warning/advisories, https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/hazardSummary/?wfo=MTR

Elevated Fire Weather Concerns Late in the Weekend [TL;DNR low confidence for Santa Cruz Mountains as of now] National Weather Service - SF Bay Area/Monterey... Issued: 7:00 PM Thursday, December 3, 2020 Key Points - Expected Impacts Offshore winds developing Sunday night into Monday Increased fire weather concern for the *North Bay Mountains* and *East Bay Hills* Fuel moistures are continuing to decrease in absence of rain and marine layer First Issuance Confidence and Details ... East Bay & the Santa Cruz Mountains =================================== HIGH Confidence Winds are expected to switch to the north-northeast Sunday with stronger gusts at higher elevations Sunday night into Monday morning MODERATE Confidence Exact timing of the strongest winds Strongest winds in the Hills, occasional strong gusts in the Valleys Moderate-to-limited overnight humidity recoveries LOW Confidence Exact strength of strongest winds * Winds reaching the Santa Cruz Mountains * Details: Fire Weather Concerns: Winds are expected to become offshore Sunday evening through Monday morning Strongest winds and driest conditions will be at higher elevations Higher confidence in the East Bay Hills observing strong offshore gusts. Winds in Santa Cruz Mountains will increase with occasional stronger gusts with dry conditions, but at this time there is lower confidence in a widespread offshore wind event Fuels are at record dry levels currently Onshore flow is expected Sunday morning/afternoon as the system approaches the coast which will add some moisture to the area, but not enough to quell fire concerns overnight Winds out of the North will increase with a few stronger gusts in the Valleys as well, but are not expected to be as severe as in the Hills at this time. ... Weather Summary An upper level, low pressure trough moves toward the Pacific Northwest by Saturday evening. On Sunday, it is projected to drop southward centered over Reno, Nevada and cause the winds over the Bay Area to shift to the north-northeast. These offshore winds are expected to be gusty, particularly at higher elevations. Winds will be onshore on Sunday morning and afternoon, helping to add some moisture to the area, but will quickly dry out Sunday evening. Due to the lack of precipitation around the area, fuels have reached record dry levels, elevating fire concerns. Strongest wind gusts are projected to be in the overnight hours of Sunday evening and into early Monday morning. There is still time for this forecast to be adjusted, but the event will start to be captured in more higher resolution models to get a better grasp on exact timing and strength of winds.

Lessons from the Fire - Tell Us What You Think The Bonny Doon Fire Safe Council would like to hear your thoughts about the CZU fire and the aftermath. We have assembled an ad hoc Vision and Goals Committee to assess the needs of our community in addressing the continuing threat of wildfires here on the mountain. The Committee will recommend a set of broad goals to guide the FSC moving forward. That’s where you come in. Based on your experiences before, during and after the fi...re, what kind of help would have been most useful? What needs should be addressed? The more input you and other community members can provide, the better the final work product of the Committee will be. Please send your ideas to [email protected] Thanks to them and thanks to you for this important work.