Andresen & Associates, Inc.

This weekend I took my family to San Francisco for a weekend exploring. We stayed at a well known hotel. I asked the staff how the recovery was unfolding for them. They replied that they had about 40% occupancy. Not at all the pre-COVID numbers. Then I learned about the Southwest Airlines traffic snarl at airports across the nation. Of course we've all been reading about the supply chain breakdowns, and feeling that in our wallets as well. And last night at 10 PM I spoke to a... tired mail carrier, imported from elsewhere, brought in to cover for other postal service workers who aren't yet back on the job. All this left me deeply aware that systemic economic recovery from COVID is going to take a long, long time. The societal changes created by COVID and the lockdowns are still evolving and not entirely appreciated. In short, we're not done with the long term national effects of COVID. And while I'm pro-vaccination, I'm not sure that the vaccine mandates themselves are helping. https://finance.yahoo.com//column-unemployment-benefits-we See more

Ahhh. Inflation. It appears that it will run a bit longer than expected. Over the next five years, I'd be surprised to see it persist. Regime change and short-term financial market downturns are somewhat more likely, with their accompanying economic slowdowns. These will all be temporary. No, I don't think it will be the end of the financial world, but it may feel like it. https://www.thewealthadvisor.com//professor-who-called-dow

In my work as an investment advisor I've learned that fighting moral corruption is like playing "Wack-A-Mole": it sprouts up frequently. Plus the powerful exempt themselves. Here's an example. https://www.cnbc.com//dallas-fed-president-kaplan-to-retir

I share the concept that small caps and emerging markets will outperform for as much as a decade while large cap growth deals with its overvalued status. But not yet. The dollar has not yet begun to substantially decline, because the Fed is still in control. The S&P 500 is still in charge...for now. https://www.advisorperspectives.com//gundlach-when-the-dol

Storm clouds ahead for the financial markets? My thoughts. https://youtu.be/GnasPR5suD8

Yes, the next bear market is coming. Although I have my ideas about WHEN it will happen (the debt limit crisis in September/October seems like a decent place for at least a little turmoil) I really can't guess. The Fed has made quantifying the next correction relatively undoable. And there's this to keep in mind: "The S&P 500 was already in a bear market slide when the 9/11 attacks occurred, having peaked 1 years earlier on 3/24/00. That bear did not end for more than another year (on 10/09/02), subsequently followed by 2 additional bears in 2007-09 and in 2020. In spite of 3 bears in the last 20 years, the S&P 500 has gained +9.4% per year (total return) from 9/10/01 to last Friday 9/10/21 (source: BTN Research)." Picture just letting it happen, then buying when it's down.

I hope this link gets through the Wall Street Journal’s paywall. It’s a great commentary. The point is that the U.S. stock market is currently horrifically distorted. Some types of stocks are overvalued at a surreal level. Meanwhile other sectors are not meaningfully overvalued. It’s gotten more extreme over the past five years. On a purely rational basis we should be more shelteredbut thanks to the Fed the stock market has more than doubled during that time. Thus I’m keeping allocations conservative but not cowardly. Let’s see what happens next. At some point, something’s gotta givetemporarily. https://www.wsj.com//low-interest-rate-dow-35000-joby-avia

More on real estate by the fascinating page Long Term Trends. Housing prices adjusted for inflation.

From the people who brought us victory in Afghanistan. What could go wrong? By The Numbers reports: "Social Security trustees announced on 8/31/21 that the trust fund backing the payment of Social Security benefits (OASI retirement benefits) would be zero in 2033. A zero trust fund does not mean the payment of Social Security benefits would also go to zero, but rather would drop to 76% of their originally promised levels through the year 2095. When the trustees released their report in 2010 (i.e., 11 years ago), the Social Security Trust Fund was projected to be depleted in 2040 (source: Social Security Trustees 2021 Report)".

My feeling is that disappointments are inevitable during this global pandemic. For now, I'm not worried. Yet. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/03/jobs-report-august-2021.html

Bubbles are evolving and will continue to grow until the government somehow will not, or cannot, intervene to stimulate the financial markets. This could take years. https://www.cnbc.com//housing-price-bubble-will-wipe-out-w

Seeking serenity during tough times is difficult, but it's very helpful in attaining investment success.

One of the great experiments of the early 21st Century: Do cryptocurrencies add any value whatsoever? I'm guessing that history will record a mixed verdict. Meanwhile, none of us really know what will happen. Does anyone remember VHS technology? We may be at that level of technological change. https://www.foxbusiness.com//paulson-says-cryptocurrencies

The stock market seems to prefer a division of power in Washington. That's why I'm not so concerned with the presidential election. I'm more concerned with Congressional contests! https://www.usatoday.com//trump-biden-election/3755707001/

The lessons of another tech investor, from another era: "https://time.com/4297572/mark-twain-bad-business/

Count me among those who wouldn’t be surprised by a temporary downturn. I think it could be healthy to check some of the rampant speculation in the tech sector. And yes, it’s actually a bullish indicator when most investors feel like this! https://www.marketwatch.com//most-investors-now-expect-the

Here's a quote by very successful investor Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Holdings Ltd. in his 2020 Semiannual letter to shareholders: "If there were a stock market index of private, small businesses, it would likely be down 50% or more. Small business failures will make the income inequality problem even worse. "If we are to avoid continued political risk and disharmony which create serious risks to the sustainability of the capitalist system, we need to find a way for those left behind to participate to a greater extent in capitalism, broadly defined. This is an important problem that must be addressed, and it is incumbent upon all of us, particularly those of us who are the greatest beneficiaries of the system, to find a potential solution." The challenge continues.

I am attending an Advisor-only briefing of navigating market volatility through US elections and COVID. Probably we’ll all muddle by. But wow are we all being manipulated by the media and by our own emotions. It’s going to be important to stay calm. This could get wild.

Today's comments: deferred gratification is a key virtue for successful long term investing! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66xOe_FN3_Q&t=8s

At this point, I'm NOT IN FAVOR of big portfolio changes to try to game the coming election. Too many variables, with the Fed as the wild card. Yes, adjustments will be necessary, as always, but we don't want to be guessing. That's speculating, gambling, betting, guessing, not investing. My plan right now is to stay the course, until something suggests we should do something different. https://www.schwabfunds.com//4-reasons-to-stay-course-as-e

From the perspective of the calamitous 14th Century, the Coronavirus pandemic hasn't been so bad. From AMG Mutual Funds: "The 9.1% drop in the size of the US economy between the 2nd quarter of 2019 and the 2nd quarter of 2020 was a smaller decrease than the decline that took place in India (down 25.2%), the UK (down 20.4%), Mexico (down 17.1%), France (down 13.8%), Italy (down 12.8%) and Canada (down 11.5%) (source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)."

Bullish actually! Happy weekend! https://finance.yahoo.com//u-stocks-see-third-biggest-0911

History doesn't support going to cash. There's a lot of fear out there, and likely to be more fear as the year continues. Absolutely, a diversified portfolio is a decent choice, but just going to cash is not supported by history. Yes, the next few months may bring us a downturn. They also might result in a rise if the Fed intervenes, as it so often has. So...conservative, with plenty of bonds and cash, a position in the stock markets, and a long term plan. https://www.cnbc.com//barry-diller-calls-stock-market-grea

History says that inevitably there will be another financial market decline. Yet it certainly doesn’t feel like it now. Here’s what the chairman of the Federal Reserve said this morning to Congress. So perhaps the fix is in, and we’ll never see a 2008 ever again. Our economy will recover fully from this difficult period, he said. We remain committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy for as long as is needed.

In a way, volatility this week will be healthy. There's lots of news, it's an election year, and valuations are iffy inside of a pandemic year. I worry more when investors don't worry. My plan this week is to focus on the long term, stay conservative for now, and stay the course. https://www.marketwatch.com//asian-markets-start-monday-lo

Strangely, the biggest threats to family wealth statistically, are dysfunctional behaviors, addictions, and overspending. Divorce destroys more portfolio value than down markets, at least in the long term! https://www.marketwatch.com//heres-why-90-of-rich-people-s